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Welcome to the “Omni-election” year
Text | Cicero Team
Date | 28 January 2024
Read | 6 min
Cicero Team
2024 is set to be the biggest election year in living memory. 47 countries across the globe will go to the polls to elect new heads of state, government or their legislatures, including two G7 countries, and six G20 members.
Seven of the top ten most populous countries in the world (India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico) will all elect new governments.

The European Parliament will elect new members and there’s the possibility of snap elections in Canada and Japan, where the current administrations are particularly unpopular, as well as in the Republic of Ireland, where a general election is due by March 2025. We now know that all this will include an almost certain UK general election, with Rishi Sunak’s “working assumption” of a contest in the second half of this year, not to mention UK local and Mayoral elections in May as well.Elections analysts and psephologists look at each poll in a vacuum, but more often than not there is a spillover effect between elections, especially within the Anglosphere.

Look no further than the inspiration Keir Starmer’s Labour has taken from the Biden Administration or the Australian Labor Party’s win in 2022. Rishi Sunak meanwhile is reportedly looking to follow Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential election playbook. In addition, with Donald Trump back on the scene, and the first overlap of US and UK elections since 1992, much will be made of the disgraced former President’s impact on the campaign here given the presence of many Trump-sceptics on the Labour frontbench, including the Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, who is close to the Democrats.More broadly, elections across the world will have an impact on some of the biggest issues that might affect the campaign. For example, with Russians going to the polls in March, a breakthrough in the Ukraine conflict is unlikely, as Vladimir Putin will be wanting to show strength in the run-up to his own all-but-inevitable re-election. Separately, in the context of the Indian elections, expect the Tories to play up Sunak’s own heritage to consolidate support within a voting block in the UK that has swung quite considerably towards his party over the last decade.

At the same time, Labour will be asked to clarify its position on Kashmir, an issue which has caused a big rift between two key parts of its electoral coalition – the Hindu and Muslim South Asian population – in towns such as Leicester and across Greater Manchester.

And in the case of an election in Ireland, we might see Sinn Féin topping the polls in the South having already won in Ulster, bringing the Brexit debate back to the fore. The final unobserved trend that 2024 might bring up is the shift to the right most democracies are expected to experience. Following the elections of centre-left parties in the early part of the decade, centre- and far-right parties are sweeping to power across Europe and the Anglosphere, and more are expected to do well in June when voters across the EU elect new MEPs. Given the focus on migration and asylum issues in many of these campaigns, the Tories are bound to be watching closely in the hope of riding a similar wave in the UK.

Labour will also be keeping an eye on these elections, as their own migration plans depend on closer collaboration with the EU. Any rightward shift in the politics of the EU could also damage the prospects of a better UK-EU relationship under a future Labour government.

All throughout 2024, the Cicero team and the wider H/Advisors network will be on hand to help you make sense of the big trends and understand how they will impact the UK, EU and US elections. Strap yourselves in and welcome to the year of the “omni-election”.