“Can I move the needle in a local election campaign?” It’s a question every local election candidate asks themselves and sometimes the answer is “no”. Perhaps the incumbent has done great things for the ward, won hearts, and become the neighbourhood hero, leaving you with little room to compete. In another scenario, the incumbent political party might have campaigned relentlessly in the local area and left you without the time or the resources to change the narrative.

Sometimes, however, the stars align, and the right circumstances are in place for a local candidate to unseat an incumbent:

• Untouched issues: There are issues of consequence to the local electorate that haven’t been addressed by the incumbent.
• Party competitiveness: The political party you represent is competitive in the ward in which you’re standing in. This can be gauged from previous electoral results in the area.
• Local appetite: Local party members are up for the campaign and eager to work hard to see you elected.
• Polling acceptably: The political party you’re attached to is popular with the general public and riding high in national polls.

Under such circumstances running a good local campaign can get you elected (if you’ve got the stamina). But it’s important to remember that everything can change quickly in politics and so much depends on what the month before the election looks like from a national perspective. No matter how much planning or door-knocking you’ve done, a scandal in Westminster always has the potential to derail the best local election campaign.

The last time these council seats and mayoralties were last in contention was 2021, three Prime Ministers ago and at a time when the Conservatives were ahead in the polls. Now everything has changed. The Conservatives are trailing behind Labour by 20 points and have lost 10 Parliamentary by-elections. Smaller parties, like the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Reform are polling well and hoping to increase their share of local government seats.

Conservatives

The Conservatives are expecting to lose big, with Rishi Sunak’s allies regarding this as the most dangerous moment for the Prime Minister before the General Election. Chatter has turned to whether the results will be so bad, that a vote of no confidence or leadership challenge follows and leads to the removal of another Prime Minister.

Labour

Labour has a lot to gain. The local elections are another opportunity for the party to road test its campaigning and digital machine and pump-up activists to build momentum before the General Election. Labour is defending just under 1,000 council seats and there will be questions for the party to answer if this share doesn’t grow on 2 May.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats will use the local elections to make inroads in 20 target seats for the General Election across the southeast and southwest. The party will try to capitalise on tactical voting emphasising that they are the best party to challenge the Conservatives in areas like Surrey and Somerset.

Reform

Reform poses a threat to the Conservatives for the mayoral elections and to a limited extent, for the local elections. New polling for the West Midlands shows Reform is polling in third place with 13%, Conservatives at 28% and Labour at 42%. The Conservatives risk losing votes across multiple races to Reform and will want to hammer home to voters: Vote Reform, Get Labour.