He is starting the campaign with a mountain to climb. The Cicero Elections’ 24 Polling Tracker finds that the Labour Party enjoys an average lead of 21 points over the Conservatives. Sunak has not had an easy time as Prime Minister, inheriting a troubled economy in the wake of Liz Truss’s premiership, a cost of living crisis, global instability and a divided party with a reputation still recovering from the effects of ‘Partygate’ and other Johnson-era scandals. While Conservative poll ratings rallied for a period, they have dipped again over the past 12 months and are currently little better than when Truss left office.

The assumption then is that Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister. Since becoming Labour leader in 2020, he has presided over a reversal in the party’s fortunes, from a heavy defeat in 2019 to now standing on the brink of Downing Street. He has undoubtedly been helped by missteps from the Government, but has also shown political skill in asserting control over his party and a ruthlessness in stripping out potential barriers to Labour winning power. Partygate and the mini-Budget opened the door for Labour, but Starmer has had to work hard to put the party in a position to walk through it.

Nothing is certain yet, however. General Election campaigns are unpredictable beasts and both main party leaders are untested in this environment. It was only two General Elections ago, in 2017, when Theresa May started with a similar lead to that currently enjoyed by Labour, but ended without a majority and her premiership fatally undermined. Policy missteps, awkward media performances or unexpected gaffes are all magnified in a General Election campaign and momentum can quickly shift, so Starmer and the wider Labour team will need to tread carefully. A safety-first approach has been a hallmark of Starmer’s leadership throughout, however, so in some respects it’s as you were.

There will be plenty of big milestones throughout the campaign, from manifesto launches to televised debates, set-piece speeches and sit-down interviews. But it is often the unplanned moments that General Elections are most remembered for – the John Prescott punch or the Gillian Duffy moments. All of the major parties will be hoping that their candidates, leaders and key spokespeople are on their best behaviour. Those of us who just enjoy watching may be hoping they are not.

It’s also worth remembering that UK General Elections are not one election but 650 individual contests. The dynamics in different parts of the country will be very different than the dominant national narrative of ‘Rishi vs Keir’. In Scotland, it is the SNP who have been the dominant force but Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems will all fancy taking seats from them in different parts of the country. In areas like the South West, Tory-Lib Dem battlegrounds will be critical. Reform UK will hope to make an impact in Brexit voting areas, while in other parts of the country the Greens will be a more potent threat. There are specific variables at play in some areas, such as what impact the conflict in the Middle East may have on Labour support among Muslim voters, or whether Vaughan Gething’s difficult start to life as First Minister in Wales may be a factor in contests there.

All of this is to say that General Elections are hard to predict. That’s where Cicero Elections ’24 comes in. We’ll be providing a regular stream of insights and analysis to help you navigate the uncertainty. That is our pledge and you can hold us to it!