As we enter the last 48 hours of the election campaign, polling suggests we may see historically low turnout, with limited enthusiasm from voters for any of the parties on offer. What seems to be cutting through the general apathy is a desire for change and the removal of the Conservatives from Government. To that end, more voters than ever appear to be thinking strategically about how they cast their ballot and turning to tactical voting.

What is tactical voting?

Tactical voting is a strategy used by voters to maximise the impact of their vote, usually to prevent another candidate from winning. This works by voters offering their support to the party that is most likely to beat the undesired candidate.

For instance, if a Liberal Democrat supporter in a Conservative/Labour marginal wanted to prevent the Conservative candidate from winning, they would lend their vote to the Labour Party to maximise the chances of keeping the Conservatives out.

What influence could tactical voting have in the 2024 election?

Despite the predicted scale of a Labour majority, the large swing of vote share means that many voters who have long been in ‘safe’ seats now find themselves voting in a tight race. Those in previously safe Conservative seats may have felt free to vote for third parties in the past in the knowledge that tactical voting would have little impact. However, at this election, the chance of beating the Conservatives seems very real in many seats which may persuade people to vote tactically for whoever has the best chance at beating the Tories, whether they be Labour, SNP or Liberal Democrat.

What does the polling say?

Polling from YouGov has shown that 33% of voters are intending to vote tactically to stop the party they like the least from winning, up from 19% in 2019. When broken down to which party they like the least, 70% said the Conservatives, with only 26% saying Labour. The overwhelming majority of tactical voting at this election is expected to prevent another Conservative term in Government.

Of those voting tactically, 46% are choosing Labour over the Conservatives and 28% are choosing the Liberal Democrats over them too. 82% of Remain voters and even 43% of Leave voters who plan to vote tactically said they would do so to try and stop the Conservatives from winning. On the right, there also appears to be more enthusiasm for Reform UK than the Conservatives. Of those who will be voting for their first choice of party, 25% are supporting Reform UK, with only 19% supporting the Tories as their first choice.

What is the connection between tactical voting and the Liberal Democrats?

An interesting story emerging from the polling numbers is the level of tactical voting among Liberal Democrat supporters. 46% of 2019 Lib Dem voters have said they will vote tactically at this election, with 87% of those voting against the Tories. In addition, 53% of those who say they will vote for the Liberal Democrats in 2024 are doing so for tactical reasons.

How are different demographic groups voting?

When looking at demographic breakdowns, there is a clear trend of younger voters being more likely to vote tactically, and older voters being more likely to back their favourite party. Among 18-24 year-olds, 38% say they will vote tactically, with 91% of those doing so to prevent a Conservative candidate from being elected, indicating a potential dissatisfaction with policies like national service from the Tories.

The level of tactical voting amongst younger people could be attributed to online campaigns by organisations including Best for Britain and Stop the Tories. However, even amongst the over 65 age group, 28% are voting tactically with 43% of those doing so against the Tories, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the Government has penetrated even their largest voter group.

Conclusion

If tactical voting succeeds on Thursday, many high-profile Conservatives could be vulnerable. Current polling suggests a worst-case scenario for the Conservatives could be a seat count as low as 57.

1906, 1945 and 1997 all saw landslide defeats from the Conservatives, at the hands of co-ordinated anti-Tory coalitions. In 2024, tactical voting could play a bigger role than ever, with individual efforts and coordinated campaigns working towards ousting them, ultimately playing a potentially significant role in a Labour victory. 

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